| 2009-10 Season Preview: New York Knicks Authored by Christopher Reina - September 30, 2009 - 7:30 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | Merry Christmas, Raptors Fans The Raptors might not be playing good basketball right now, but there are plenty of things for Toronto fans to be thankful for this holiday season.
A Melo Behind The SuperstarsCarmelo Anthony has never been one of the league's most efficient offensive players.
 |
Maynor Using Utah’s Resources
Eric Maynor is an increasingly rare four-year, small college rookie. He sat down with RealGM to discuss how his first few weeks of NBA life has gone and what he has learned from Deron Williams and Jerry Sloan.
|
 |
Why LeBron To The Clippers Makes Sense
LeBron James already plays for a perennial underdog in Cleveland, but moving to the Clippers would allow him to do so in a huge market and with a core that will immediately compete for championships while also having an encouraging long term outlook.
|
 |
‘Home-Heavy Schedule’ Brings Question Marks
The Heat have been plagued by inconsistencies, making it difficult to determine how good they really are this season.
|
|
More from RealGM's Columnists
|
| |
2008-09 FIC Ranking: 20th, -10.4 per game
Key Additions: Darko Milicic
Key Subtractions: Quentin Richardson, Chris Wilcox
Key Rookies: Jordan Hill, Toney Douglas
Probable Starters: Chris Duhon, Larry Hughes, Wilson Chandler, Al Harrington, David Lee
Point Guard: Chris Duhon had a nice first half in Mike D'Antoni's SSoL system, but his body broke down with the heavy minutes and he remains a point guard best suited as an above average back-up. To his credit, Duhon was everything the Knicks asked and paid him to be, playing nearly 1,000 more minutes than his previous high while logging career highs in all shooting categories and assists per 36 minutes. The Knicks would be wise to pace Duhon a little bit better, who is once again the only pure point guard on the roster after the club ultimately shied away from signing restricted free agent Ramon Sessions.
Nate Robinson will come off the bench again with his instant offense and energy. He hasn't developed as a point guard and his future is as an Eddie House type of scorer, who will be a high volume, 20 points per 36 minutes scorer. He is a competent perimeter shooter, who could once again flirt with 40% shooting from distance if he had better scorers around him. He also rebounds extremely well for his size and has become less mistake prone overall. Robinson creates headaches both for opponents and his own team sometimes, but the Knicks are unquestionably better when he is on the floor and the neglect he was shown on the open market was somewhat surprising (with the caveat that I would tend to avoid him as well if I were a GM).
Like Robinson, newcomer Toney Douglas isn't really a point guard. He was a fifth-year senior out of Florida State and is a gadget type of player (again like Robinson), though he could of course click well in D'Antoni's system.
Swingmen: Danilo Gallinari represents the Knicks' best chance/only chance of developing an All-Star from their current roster. He is a supremely gifted offensive player, with once in a generation skills as a shooter and passer. His health appears to be something that will perpetually be an issue, but he has looked much stronger and more athletic according to almost all reports.
Wilson Chandler has a lot of tools, but doesn't do one thing exceptionally well and doesn't project very well as a scorer. He ideally will improve his spot-up shooting (32.8% from distance) with the hope he morphs into a Trevor Ariza kind of utility player once the Knicks find their superstar.
Larry Hughes' minutes will likely decline as the season progresses, as his role is to bring some semblance of experience to the wing position. Both the seasons before and after Hughes' brilliant 04-05 have been extremely pedestrian, but he has developed a more reliable shot from distance, which of course works well in New York's offensive system. His effectiveness as a defensive player has declined dramatically, however, which was once the most valuable aspect of his game.
The most valuable swingman on the Knicks' roster other than Gallinari is perhaps Cuttino Mobley, whose contract is 80% guaranteed and could net the Knicks cap relief or a young asset.
Frontcourt: With David Lee and Al Harrington, New York has two very good scorers that are well below average defensively.
The Knicks are lucky to have Lee back because this would be a downright nightmare of a situation if he would have left with nothing in return this summer. He has his limitations, but he is an extremely efficient scorer and rebounder, at least on this club.
Harrington couldn't be in a situation more ideal, as he has a perpetual green light to shoot from anywhere on the floor, the defensive obligations are mildly grueling to say the least and Lee will rebound for the two of them. Like the player he was traded for, Jamal Crawford, Harrington will enjoy one final 20 point per night season before heading back to reality in 10-11.
Jordan Hill has been knocked around a little bit following his underwhelming summer league showing, but he isn't an All-Star or nothing type of big. He is athletic and is far from a finished product, yet has consistently shown substantial strides in his improvement while at Arizona. He has enough growth potential in his body to become a D'Antoni style center, though his first order of business will probably be to prove he has a brighter future than Cleveland's young power forward, J.J. Hickson.
Darko Milicic won't all of a sudden blossom into the guy Joe Dumars and Chad Ford expected him to be in 2003 when inserted into D'Antoni's system, but this is certainly the best chance he has to succeed. The Knicks need him to shoot better than 50% from the floor while blocking two or three shots per 36 minutes. He instantly becomes their best shotblocking threat they have had in years and years and years.
With Jerome James gone, Jared Jeffries' lone remaining claim to fame is being the final overpriced free agent acquisition leftover from the Isiah Thomas era, not counting the Eddy Curry sign-and-trade.
Speaking of Curry, he has lost a lot of weight and has a chance at contributing actual minutes this season. He has become the punchline to a lot of jokes and has been a disappointment considering the price tag and the way Isiah Thomas pinned the franchise's hopes on his shoulders, but the first two seasons in New York were far from horrible and he doesn't turn 27 until December. Curry isn't the right kind of center for D'Antoni and he has always been a woeful shotblocker and rebounder, but he isn't the kind of player that can be completely written off in the manner the Knicks did with James about two months after they signed him in 2005.
Forecast: The Knicks will continue to be one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA, but that is why offensive rating is such an invaluable marker. New York was ranked 17th, with 108.1 points per 100 possessions and that number is unlikely to improve by much.
D'Antoni will try to stress an improved commitment defensively, but are a long ways away from being a top-15 team (they were ranked 23rd last season).
With a few breaks here and there in those close games last season, the Knicks could have won an additional two or three games, but the playoffs are a near impossible advancement, especially since the Raptors and Wizards missed the playoffs last season and have improved significantly.
The Knicks were a net +9.4 points per 100 possessions better with Gallinari on the floor, so a healthy season from him would be the only real difference in terms of personnel that can improve this team in the short-term.
Their most effective lineup will clearly be Robinson, Chandler, Gallinari, Lee and Harrington, which is likely how D'Antoni will choose to close games.
Ultimately, this season is almost exclusively about two things though:
1. Eliminate the contracts of Jeffries and Curry.
2. Develop the young players into the kind of core a top-echelon free agent feels he can win with. |
